Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
45.4 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
45.4 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.5473°N, 124.3962°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 00:55:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
44.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
9.3 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 4.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8a7aae38f12f5dd5192b5f55315f6b189e57cbb8fef2a740f23ffaeb550f97ae
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260715_180517_pred-38.55--124.40-20260716T0055
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 01:05:20 PST
Source Batch
20260715_180517_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:16.929307+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.