Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
36.6 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
36.6 miles South-East of Calexico
32.1971°N, 115.2362°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 07:56:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
25.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1079h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
77.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
13.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
25.4 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 11.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f813053468b62572645a1e4145ee0ffe2a475fafe377f42ae7590e8eb9323773
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-32.20--115.24-20260830T0756
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.