Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.1 miles South-East of Basalt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.1 miles South-East of Basalt
36.8672°N, 117.9573°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 19:04:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
55.6
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
778h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
100.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
1.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 12.0 km vs actual 3.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f65c7674c1655920bf067e3d9a513797d3d0b962a1e37afbd18ed6cb503a2256
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-36.87--117.96-20260817T1904
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.