Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
3.4 miles South-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles South-West of Convict Lake
37.5467°N, 118.8843°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 19:25:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
50.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
898h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
12.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 2.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a74dc6329683acbe9f938cd806dfcf0f698c8c5b3f2a767cba482f7dbde3bdbf
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-37.55--118.88-20260822T1925
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.