Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
23.1 miles East of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.1 miles East of Eureka NV
39.4601°N, 115.5358°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of August 2026
Aug 20, 2026 07:15:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
10.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
838h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
140.9 km
15.9 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
1.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.00
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
20.4 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 6.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7def19293bdc70330d66a5fb85cf1172957d53696dd565df56253e027e2d9964
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-39.46--115.54-20260820T0715
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.