Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
26.2 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.2 miles South-West of Eureka
40.4740°N, 124.4126°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 19:46:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
22.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
75.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1019h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
71.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.15
Predicted M3.75 vs actual M4.9
- 0.15 over limit
Depth Error
39.0 km
Pred. 22.0 km vs actual 17.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
65d4f2712abf8476aa5a52b01bc1682669fd01607b32bd439ba9b35b042c6634
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260716_013812_pred-40.47--124.41-20260827T1946
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 16, 2026 08:38:15 PST
Source Batch
20260716_013812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-16 11:37:19.224745+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.