Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
10.7 miles South of Sodaville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South of Sodaville
38.2336°N, 118.2350°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of July 2026
Jul 22, 2026 22:31:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
124h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
45.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5f8e7d7d3981b1f7c8e55c3ae35a3385280e103ffb2f6f0faaa0d022e29ca58a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-38.23--118.23-20260722T2231
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.