Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.1 miles East of Austin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.1 miles East of Austin
39.4196°N, 116.7846°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of July 2026
Jul 18, 2026 15:17:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
9.7 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 4.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86ab9ef4e237b20c9b58e80c9b696974d7a2d42c858230cfe0bcabaa89a0a7e7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_105848_pred-39.42--116.78-20260718T1517
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 17, 2026 17:58:51 PST
Source Batch
20260717_105848_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:53.006747+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.