Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
255.9 miles South-West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
255.9 miles South-West of San Simeon
33.1149°N, 124.4713°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 09:53:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
704h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
401.4 km
276.4 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 4.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ba218e85498e9b17d9ca3a7812577c207d229ea10f5a2af6ed6d9af0b4d1a69
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-33.11--124.47-20260816T0953
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.