Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
51.2 miles South-West of Santa Cruz
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
51.2 miles South-West of Santa Cruz
36.5510°N, 122.7905°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 22:43:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
25.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1005h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
120.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
44.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
35.5 km
Pred. 25.9 km vs actual 9.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9f0b1fe4b11185e177e47b7c0cac0cf9eb080955f66ed14a60a6f53294dc9a87
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-36.55--122.79-20260828T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.