Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
14.7 miles South-West of Rachel
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.7 miles South-West of Rachel
37.5633°N, 115.9951°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 10:33:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
945h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
183.3 km
58.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.94
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
19.3 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 5.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
33d1dc282679271e32673341a75f6af80b923afb7bba73f188253ff144d6f8f3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-37.56--116.00-20260826T1033
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.