Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
0.7 miles South-East of Mammoth Lakes
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
0.7 miles South-East of Mammoth Lakes
37.6398°N, 118.9641°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 08:52:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
343h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
17.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
24.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e453858199a8a464c72479c54f55014a48fdf067e350bad6e83c102819ade8db
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-37.64--118.96-20260801T0852
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.