Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
7.1 miles West of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.1 miles West of Fallon
39.4597°N, 118.9086°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of August 2026
Aug 23, 2026 22:23:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
884h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
14.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.10
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.6
- 0.10 over limit
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2ee005ce0b5bb5a16c5dcff5971f93d22230f207d7510a04ab7d5414b4c37f30
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260717_182458_pred-39.46--118.91-20260823T2223
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 01:25:01 PST
Source Batch
20260717_182458_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 06:06:55.269807+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.