Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
6.5 miles North of Westmorland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles North of Westmorland
33.1307°N, 115.6132°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 09:53:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
686h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
193.2 km
68.2 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
0.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
34.4 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 20.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
31e42cff35992d040528af5648b2d875f5edb25de596eedbaad400d85ed44d91
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-33.13--115.61-20260816T0953
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.