Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.3 miles South-East of Basalt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles South-East of Basalt
36.8628°N, 117.9573°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 10:13:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
807h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
87.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
5.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 12.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7c0715af9f0b3be8539a1ea317441158dc2cdec9a6006edcb92c08b443c4bb69
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-36.86--117.96-20260821T1013
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.