Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3819°N, 118.9094°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 10:33:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
927h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
104.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 2.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
08863be4f98eeed24ab3c53c3142185632103ebe13745753ae7db93809f16f0b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-38.38--118.91-20260826T1033
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.