Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.3 miles South-West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles South-West of Weott
40.2132°N, 124.2165°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 22:03:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
747h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
58.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
23.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.02
Predicted M3.92 vs actual M2.9
- 0.02 over limit
Depth Error
29.0 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 14.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3a3171f9846b26c4f2affd53fc263e7203ec145651aaf248e98f240d3b4c0d54
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-40.21--124.22-20260818T2203
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.