Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.5 miles East of Carlin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.5 miles East of Carlin
40.7259°N, 115.9852°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 22:43:29 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
25.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
987h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
361.1 km
236.1 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
7.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.82
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
28.9 km
Pred. 25.9 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3bb6f159b3aeec469b38a376f60fcdd8a5574722218bc1d74788abc33cf1283c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_115537_pred-40.73--115.99-20260828T2243
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 18, 2026 18:55:40 PST
Source Batch
20260718_115537_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-18 23:41:27.760559+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.