Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
3.3 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles South-West of Crystal Springs
37.3264°N, 115.2679°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of July 2026
Jul 19, 2026 14:54:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
80.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.9 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fb64682abe63ca7f8a313b31c37a8c2678682b066110d9e00d644fadad17e391
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260718_220321_pred-37.33--115.27-20260719T1454
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 05:03:24 PST
Source Batch
20260718_220321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:52.062655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.