Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
2.1 miles North-West of Calipatria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles North-West of Calipatria
33.1419°N, 115.5449°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 21:09:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
512h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
47.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.53
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
22.8 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 12.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
89be3099401b59084f13a87df19297872d9801b69a97732d2ff98a5dcdc4ab4a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-33.14--115.54-20260809T2109
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.