Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.3 miles North of Mercury
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.3 miles North of Mercury
36.7147°N, 115.9812°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 22:34:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
25.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
993h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
25.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
30.9 km
Pred. 25.9 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b39a01d0917d4a34cfadfbc486ab9762041014f58178eaf1782efdc6b09e997a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-36.71--115.98-20260829T2234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.