Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
19.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.3 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3225°N, 118.8697°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 10:23:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
933h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
96.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.24
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.1
- 0.24 over limit
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 1.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2785516e1f5d2010c06d9f4b10905b45eafd135a3f0bc13f12bf4bd74326c47b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-38.32--118.87-20260827T1023
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.