Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
12.7 miles North-East of Luning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.7 miles North-East of Luning
38.6089°N, 117.9732°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 10:02:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
813h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
120.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
18.6 km
Pred. 12.0 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80372b1d819785d91d53ee199f1b83c568848d9a40d612d96ca77530b8a8955d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-38.61--117.97-20260822T1002
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.