Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
5.2 miles North of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles North of Silver Springs
39.4747°N, 119.2351°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 22:13:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
873h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
108.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
13.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.20
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.5
- 0.20 over limit
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
04ee6c5fb7cf9cbe4b24b2ec7d08ecfcabda4bcac4ee2c931285e9e2a38d2f99
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_053930_pred-39.47--119.24-20260824T2213
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 19, 2026 12:39:33 PST
Source Batch
20260719_053930_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-19 17:22:54.458214+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.