Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
12.3 miles North-West of Westmorland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.3 miles North-West of Westmorland
33.1176°N, 115.8118°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 09:41:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
675h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
45.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
19.0 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 4.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
877f4d7ea78461fa077468118873eb80539b720785ecb71dba20fd273d66c578
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-33.12--115.81-20260817T0941
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.