Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
2.9 miles South-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.9 miles South-West of Convict Lake
37.5614°N, 118.8906°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 10:23:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
916h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
13.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.24
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.1
- 0.24 over limit
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 1.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f949442b21b92be8463e4503cad65ac54591ce7ddd98c4eb4fe5df32efe643dc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-37.56--118.89-20260827T1023
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.