Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.0 miles East of Carlin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.0 miles East of Carlin
40.7484°N, 116.0019°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 22:34:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
25.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
976h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
451.8 km
326.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
10.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M3.12 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
33.1 km
Pred. 25.9 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b6cd32fcea0db3ea5757f6dd3bcd212445c25d37e2b5fe0110386d9a9d0a080c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260719_232003_pred-40.75--116.00-20260829T2234
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 06:20:06 PST
Source Batch
20260719_232003_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 11:03:47.755190+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.