Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.7 miles North of Big Bear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.7 miles North of Big Bear Lake
34.3518°N, 116.8802°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 12:00:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
715h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
102.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d02ba216b53c7c2e91ce4b7f635663f72cae4b0fdc29ed250c28cda0672ccb47
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-34.35--116.88-20260819T1200
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.