Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
1.9 miles South-East of Ojai
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.9 miles South-East of Ojai
34.4343°N, 119.2141°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 12:21:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
835h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
116.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
29.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.51
Predicted M2.71 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 5.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ac91d8a921881f8729f3683a27e0957ece525d3583a8b4b78969e012d834572a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_095221_pred-34.43--119.21-20260824T1221
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 20, 2026 16:52:24 PST
Source Batch
20260720_095221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-20 21:33:02.231497+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.