Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
11.5 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.5 miles South-West of Badwater Basin
36.1028°N, 116.9004°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of July 2026
Jul 23, 2026 17:18:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
41.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.89
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a4dd1ae34c7f0c1142ebc1bea9a8503df07bbb6860106745dfd6ea018ef13ec3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260720_202432_pred-36.10--116.90-20260723T1718
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260720_202432_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.