Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
17.4 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.4 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3709°N, 118.8798°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 00:32:35 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
854h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
102.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.24
Predicted M3.34 vs actual M2.1
- 0.24 over limit
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 1.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f107cc1d9c5c3777db15b191e0eb83ed0d5dc43930a57b50c2c70b9c5c4695f9
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_034208_pred-38.37--118.88-20260827T0032
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_034208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.