Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
4.7 miles North of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.7 miles North of Silver Springs
39.4684°N, 119.2266°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 12:21:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
793h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
107.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.20
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.5
- 0.20 over limit
Depth Error
19.4 km
Pred. 12.0 km vs actual 7.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8c983743e01138668e3faefb79f91674e85eba72d8ffb6c275cefa46ed3a0b50
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_034208_pred-39.47--119.23-20260824T1221
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_034208_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:42.795406+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.