Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
13.5 miles North-East of Mina
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles North-East of Mina
38.5485°N, 117.9553°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of July 2026
Jul 21, 2026 17:33:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
121.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.35 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.3 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d034ef7faf9684ebc168bb44513d341dd590f2ff12035770ff437305e243bc5b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_122240_pred-38.55--117.96-20260721T1733
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_122240_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.