Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
9.3 miles North-West of Saline Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.3 miles North-West of Saline Valley
36.8809°N, 117.9316°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 12:00:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
673h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
90.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
53.4 h
5.4 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.52
Predicted M3.92 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
19.9 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 5.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
76a4f8841f4a23e7ab514dc9f20402c987773b7520fe0fbbf1b504a379f9b64f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-36.88--117.93-20260819T1200
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.