Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
3.0 miles South-West of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.0 miles South-West of Convict Lake
37.5510°N, 118.8798°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 12:21:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
793h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
12.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
1.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.20
Predicted M3.7 vs actual M2.5
- 0.20 over limit
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 12.0 km vs actual 2.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1d1efccbd63a2a21a5e669ff0029d9c50aab8d84be087d05ffa68a95d0f012ad
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-37.55--118.88-20260824T1221
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.