Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
4.4 miles North of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles North of Silver Springs
39.4640°N, 119.2266°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 00:10:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
733h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.99 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7b903caccdda186f152969fcfb5ae98a0be81489e76446ce0d7ed42bc3ac2de3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-39.46--119.23-20260822T0010
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.