Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
30.2 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.2 miles West of Weott
40.1981°N, 124.4670°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 23:49:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
613h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
39.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.62 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
29.2 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cacd30dc7659e98e6c7e0c31547b85a7319c383d900006e5c94806bf1c83b307
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260721_194252_pred-40.20--124.47-20260816T2349
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 22, 2026 10:25:41 PST
Source Batch
20260721_194252_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 10:25:48.048456+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.