Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
24.8 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.8 miles South of Calexico
32.3371°N, 115.3666°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 11:16:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
413h 48m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
89.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
31.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 25.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
15806863bbc12263ffb0d6c8f2a97fe934ff02be1d6485a895b96c98016a72ff
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_111535_pred-32.34--115.37-20260809T1116
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_111535_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-22 19:26:30.412694+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.