Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
2.1 miles South-East of Convict Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.1 miles South-East of Convict Lake
37.5721°N, 118.8176°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 17:43:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
108h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.80
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 2.4 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a3596090e8f8f280f43259e6c9c2dba44b65a3579b6896be3a46b3c5add48627
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_175759_pred-37.57--118.82-20260727T1743
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_175759_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 02:09:18.043008+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.