Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
2.7 miles South-West of Fenner
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
2.7 miles South-West of Fenner
34.7744°N, 115.2188°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 10:21:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
52h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
102.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.15 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
21.2 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 2.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8d41b090debd2c01a7795d2a84f033473121edc8a6956cb7ef7eeed92a1edec6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_201313_pred-34.77--115.22-20260725T1021
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_201313_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.