Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.1 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3996°N, 118.9743°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 18:29:32 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
349h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
85.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
40.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.08
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 4.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b11a24f399b41d11e8cf319cb96aac93e18d85f24322b2bf9fba54a78c23a60
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260722_211750_pred-38.40--118.97-20260806T1829
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 23, 2026 05:28:50 PST
Source Batch
20260722_211750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 05:28:51.586162+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.