Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
21.3 miles South-West of Newport Beach
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.3 miles South-West of Newport Beach
33.3364°N, 118.0747°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 12:32:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
108.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
34.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
33.8 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 15.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
55d65d2f92b51a422160d032396934995fc30dec9ef1bd0a213acdb328088e58
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_025742_pred-33.34--118.07-20260725T1232
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_025742_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 12:16:26.679017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.