Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
4.1 miles West of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.1 miles West of Empire
40.5790°N, 119.4235°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 01:39:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
18.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
110.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
21.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
27.5 km
Pred. 18.6 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
465436298d9245f1ccb583e5d1d02312fd81fd1efed631ee3fe5e3edc4e7b98d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_094502_pred-40.58--119.42-20260724T0139
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_094502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-23 17:58:22.412471+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.