Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
17.2 miles East of Slab City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles East of Slab City
33.3511°N, 115.1890°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 04:56:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
166h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
38.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.75
Predicted M3.15 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.1 km
Pred. 6.7 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
223d1c5f41cd59d589883f3c28d3954464b7bb47b4a2123fc3341bb8457516d3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260723_214418_pred-33.35--115.19-20260731T0456
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 24, 2026 06:55:48 PST
Source Batch
20260723_214418_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-24 04:49:23.319147+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.