Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
23.0 miles South-East of San Ysidro
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.0 miles South-East of San Ysidro
32.2489°N, 116.8915°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 17:16:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
9.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b5d0074efbce86333177e39088af0d291a0e1cfaed6cefc36b49de797552d05
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.25--116.89-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 19:34:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_101611_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.