Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
28.8 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.8 miles South of Calexico
32.2703°N, 115.4056°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 22:02:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
339h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
79.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
3.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.4
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
27.7 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 11.3 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
a58449fbeb0e53deef0d8a9aa422d694f56e7dd5e0a584d96ed5a78dd24ab4d4
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-32.27--115.41-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 18:17:17 PST
Source Batch
20260815_100002_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 18:20:08.699957+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-29 22:02:15.178000+00:00
2026-08-29T22:02:15.178
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 18:17:17.427770+00:00
2026-08-15T21:45:37.215528+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"