Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
28.3 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.3 miles South of Calexico
32.2976°N, 115.3212°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 16:58:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
456h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
101.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
6.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
19.5 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 13.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a60a169bbbc18434d7b088a1a05e916d66f4101c5411c043e5170ff914d2831
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.30--115.32-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 16:14:01 PST
Source Batch
20260731_080100_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 12:53:10.445097+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.