Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
28.2 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.2 miles South of Calexico
32.2953°N, 115.3356°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 14:02:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
470h 2m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
106.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
20.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
23.8 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
86b65a668214cad7b551c6e9a120cb1d02ad616221f5a5efc7ca9b74fd895295
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.30--115.34-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 00:00:12 PST
Source Batch
20260802_154656_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.