Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
28.0 miles South-East of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.0 miles South-East of Calexico
32.3104°N, 115.3007°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 16:38:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
331h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
48.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.83
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
22.6 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0c7f56a9d5c552daa5e1bf569c55705620ec70f98b4941e2a0add6ce95ee88a4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.31--115.30-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 21:25:42 PST
Source Batch
20260814_130944_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-14 03:55:01.056800+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.