Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
27.3 miles South of Calexico
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
27.3 miles South of Calexico
32.3053°N, 115.3470°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 11:38:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
16.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
340h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.83
Predicted M3.43 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
22.6 km
Pred. 16.4 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
da6501e3da0b4c2389504bb979bc8ab5970fc918de6a794f7f6c9e77703ce455
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-32.31--115.35-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 06:44:32 PST
Source Batch
20260812_222816_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 20:05:31.424703+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.